Two weeks ago I wrote about the "third wave" of philanthropy — the idea that OpenAI and Anthropic fortunes will fund a historic surge in giving. Back then it was a projection. The IPO filings make it real, and I keep landing right where I did then.
The number that stops me: if Anthropic's founders follow through on giving away 80% of their wealth, that's close to $38 billion in play.
My worry hasn't changed: where it lands. The easy path funds a narrow set of groups that already think like the founders do, which just deepens one worldview's reach.
The third wave only earns the name if it goes the almost-boring way: unrestricted, big, multi-year checks to the community nonprofits already doing the work — the ones who know their neighborhoods and just need runway. MacKenzie Scott already proved this compounds. And yes, some of the world's richest are now questioning whether philanthropy is even worth it. Fair debate. But while it plays out, real organizations are running on fumes. I'd rather back the people closest to the problem and let them show what the money can do.